A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in universities but scarcely any politicians or activists want to engage even with the basics. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. Each composes two essays that aim for impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has has valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
